Patriots vs Dolphins — Week 5, 2024
The Patriots took over trailing 15-10 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 10, Dolphins 15. Dolphins won 15-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.5% for Patriots. Our model starts at 23.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NE 29 for -1 yards (22-E.Campbell).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 1-J.Polk to NE 42 for 13 yards (4-K.Kohou).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 43 for 11 yards (4-K.Kohou; 26-M.Maye). NE-38-R.Stevenson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:42) 4-A.Gibson right guard to MIA 33 for 10 yards (26-M.Maye). measurement
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on NE-85-H.Henry, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to MIA 31 for 13 yards (6-A.Walker).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to MIA 12 for 19 yards (5-J.Ramsey). ** Injury Update: NE-38-R.Stevenson has returned to the game.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Hooper.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 1-J.Polk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Polk [93-C.Campbell].
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.