Jaguars vs Raiders — Week 16, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 19-14 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 14, Raiders 19. Raiders won 19-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 7, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.8% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 15.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 11 for 4 yards (5-D.Deablo).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 89-L.Farrell to JAX 13 for 2 yards (18-J.Jones).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to JAX 19 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 39 for 20 yards (96-J.Laulu).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right [9-T.Wilson].
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 48 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.68 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.03 pts |
| Curl route | -1.05 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -1.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -1.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.