Texans vs Jaguars — Week 13, 2024
The Texans took over leading 23-20 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Jaguars 20. Texans won 23-20 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.3% for Texans. Our model starts at 78.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to HOU 30 for no gain (41-J.Hines-Allen).
- (2:45) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to HOU 44 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco).
- (2:35) 28-J.Mixon left end to HOU 46 for 2 yards (52-D.Hamilton; 33-D.Lloyd).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to 50 for 4 yards (51-V.Miller; 94-M.Smith).
- (2:00) 28-J.Mixon left end to JAX 42 for 8 yards (51-V.Miller).
- (1:16) 7-C.Stroud kneels to JAX 42 for no gain.
- (:38) 7-C.Stroud kneels to JAX 43 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Curl route | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.39 pts |
| End-around | -3.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.39 pts |
| Deep post | -6.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.