Browns vs Broncos — Week 13, 2024
The Browns took over trailing 34-32 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Browns 32, Broncos 41. Broncos won 41-32 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 42.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 22 for -8 yards (0-J.Cooper).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 28 for 6 yards (40-J.Strnad).
- (2:04) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 8-E.Moore ran ob at CLE 42 for 14 yards.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Deep post | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.