Giants vs Panthers — Week 10, 2024
The Giants took over trailing 17-14 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 17, Panthers 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 39, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 38.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NYG 45 for 6 yards (8-J.Horn).
- (3:46) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson.
- (3:40) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson. CAR-7-J.Clowney was injured during the play.
- (3:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to CAR 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| Curl route | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.92 pts |
| Deep post | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.