Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 5, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 30-27 with 2:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 30, Buccaneers 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 31.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard to ATL 23 for -2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 16 for -7 yards (90-L.Hall).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier to ATL 20 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [9-J.Tryon].
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at ATL 35. 54-L.David to ATL 28 for 7 yards (25-T.Allgeier).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| QB keep | +1.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.51 pts |
| Deep post | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.