Jaguars vs Packers — Week 8, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 27-20 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 27, Packers 30. Packers won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 13, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 10.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram to JAX 25 for 12 yards (25-K.Nixon; 45-Er.Wilson).
- (3:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 40 for 15 yards (21-E.Stokes).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 2-D.Johnson to GB 40 for 20 yards (45-Er.Wilson).
- (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to GB 35 for 5 yards (20-J.Bullard).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Jones (23-J.Alexander).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 85-B.Strange to GB 14 for 21 yards (56-E.Cooper).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-P.Washington (23-J.Alexander).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.05 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.05 pts |
| Curl route | -0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| Play action | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.51 pts |
| QB keep | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Spike it | -1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -1.33 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.