Giants vs Steelers — Week 8, 2024
The Giants took over trailing 26-18 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 18, Steelers 26. Steelers won 26-18 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. In Steelers territory, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 19.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at PIT 28 for 9 yards (25-D.Elliott).
- (4:28) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to PIT 22 for 6 yards (97-Ca.Heyward).
- (4:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to PIT 20 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward). NYG-29-T.Tracy was injured during the play.
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to PIT 19 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at PIT 27 for -8 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 28.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-4.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Play action | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Deep post | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.83 pts |
| Field goal | -4.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.