Jets vs Jaguars — Week 15, 2024
The Jets took over trailing 22-17 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Jets 32, Jaguars 25. Jets won 32-25 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 20.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to NYJ 17 for 4 yards (3-T.Campbell).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 12 yards (26-A.Johnson).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Ruckert.
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers pass to 17-D.Adams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.24 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Deep post | -0.59 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Play action | -0.78 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Outside run | -1.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.81 pts |
| Spike it | -1.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.