Colts vs Jets — Week 11, 2024
The Colts took over trailing 27-22 with 2:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Colts 28, Jets 27. Colts won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 2:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 19.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left guard to IND 34 for 4 yards (72-M.Clemons; 95-Q.Williams).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce to NYJ 27 for 39 yards (35-J.Mills).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs to NYJ 10 for 17 yards (23-I.Oliver).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to NYJ 6 for 4 yards (23-I.Oliver).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to NYJ 4 for 2 yards (99-W.McDonald, 72-M.Clemons).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 28-J.Taylor rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| Deep post | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -1.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.