Eagles vs Saints — Week 3, 2024
The Eagles took over trailing 12-7 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 15, Saints 12. Eagles won 15-12 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 17.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 83-J.Dotson to PHI 36 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu) [99-C.Young].
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 35 for -6 yards (90-B.Bresee).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Wilson (1-A.Taylor).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 26-S.Barkley rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.65 pts |
| Deep post | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.10 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -1.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.