Vikings vs Cardinals — Week 13, 2024
The Vikings took over trailing 22-16 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 23, Cardinals 22. Vikings won 23-22 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 14.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 36 for 6 yards (34-J.Thompson).
- (3:00) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison to ARI 38 for 26 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (2:37) (No Huddle) 27-C.Akers right guard to ARI 33 for 5 yards (43-J.Luketa; 55-D.Stills).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right.
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson (2-Ma.Wilson).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to ARI 21 for 12 yards (53-B.Browning) [54-X.Thomas].
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 3-J.Addison to ARI 5 for 8 yards (21-G.Williams).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.