Seahawks vs Rams — Week 9, 2024
The Seahawks took over trailing 20-13 with 4:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Rams 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 15.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 32 for -6 yards (55-B.Fiske).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [91-K.Turner].
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 31 for 14 yards (39-J.McCollough).
- (3:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 28 for 8 yards (32-J.Reed). ** Injury Update: LA-30-J.Wallace has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.07 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.