Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 8, 2024
The Buccaneers took over trailing 31-26 with 1:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 31. Falcons won 31-26 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 36, 1:01 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.2% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 14.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan to TB 42 for 6 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 17-S.Shepard.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-R.Miller to TB 48 for 6 yards (20-D.Alford).
- (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 18-R.Jarrett to ATL 33 for 19 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (:10) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.
- (:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+2.29 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +2.29 pts |
| Curl route | +1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -1.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.