Falcons vs Raiders — Week 15, 2024
The Falcons took over leading 15-9 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 15, Raiders 9. Falcons won 15-9 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 92.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ATL 33 for 3 yards (5-D.Deablo).
- (2:50) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ATL 36 for 3 yards (95-J.Jenkins; 41-R.Spillane).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to LV 48 for 1 yard (95-J.Jenkins; 44-K.Chaisson).
- (2:33) 7-B.Robinson right end to LV 45 for 3 yards (25-D.Richardson; 95-J.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 34-R.McCloud (96-J.Laulu).
- (1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -2.45 pts |
| Curl route | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.82 pts |
| Deep post | -8.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.77 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.