49ers vs Cowboys — Week 8, 2024
The 49ers took over leading 30-24 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 30, Cowboys 24. 49ers won 30-24 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end to SF 37 for 7 yards (35-M.Liufau).
- (3:25) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 30 for -7 yards (13-D.Overshown).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 36 for 6 yards (28-M.Hooker, 50-E.Kendricks).
- (3:15) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-18-C.Conley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -2.45 pts |
| Curl route | -2.69 pts |
| End-around | -4.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.80 pts |
| Deep post | -8.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.