Titans vs Texans — Week 12, 2024
The Titans took over leading 30-27 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 32, Texans 27. Titans won 32-27 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.0% for Titans. Our model starts at 80.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard left end to TEN 27 for 7 yards (45-D.White).
- (1:47) 20-T.Pollard right end to TEN 24 for -3 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (1:43) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short left to 84-N.Vannett (39-H.To'oTo'o).
- (1:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 27 for 12 yards (81-J.Whyle). PENALTY on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Play action | -0.95 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.30 pts |
| End-around | -3.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.98 pts |
| Deep post | -5.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.