Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 13, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 19-17 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 19, Raiders 17. Chiefs won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. Near midfield, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 82.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to LV 47 for 5 yards (41-R.Spillane; 34-T.Harper).
- (2:13) 76-K.Suamataia reported in as eligible. 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to LV 44 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby; 7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:09) 76-K.Suamataia reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy [5-D.Deablo].
- (2:03) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| QB keep | -0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.22 pts |
| Curl route | -1.38 pts |
| Play action | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.90 pts |
| End-around | -3.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.60 pts |
| Deep post | -6.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.