Rams vs Patriots — Week 11, 2024
The Rams took over leading 28-22 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Rams 28, Patriots 22. Rams won 28-22 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.2% for Rams. Our model starts at 87.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to LA 48 for 18 yards (24-D.Pettus).
- (4:13) 23-K.Williams up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 23-K.Dugger).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NE 45 for 5 yards (90-C.Barmore).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua to NE 39 for 6 yards (25-M.Jones).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Robinson (99-K.White).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to NE 35 for 4 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-P.Nacua (31-J.Jones).
- (2:22) 42-E.Evans punts 30 yards to NE 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-48-O.Speights, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 5.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.62 pts |
| Play action | -4.29 pts |
| End-around | -4.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.34 pts |
| Deep post | -9.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.