Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 4, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 17-10 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Chargers 10. Chiefs won 17-10 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 4, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 92.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 8 for 4 yards (22-E.Molden, 93-O.Ogbonnia). ** Injury Update: LAC-90-T.Tart has returned to the game. ** Injury Update: LAC-0-D.Henley has returned to the game.
- (3:08) 29-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 8 for no gain (52-K.Mack).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-X.Worthy to KC 23 for 15 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 22 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 21 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 20 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.19 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| QB keep | -1.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.00 pts |
| Play action | -3.34 pts |
| Curl route | -3.81 pts |
| End-around | -5.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.59 pts |
| Deep post | -9.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.