Packers vs Texans — Week 7, 2024
The Packers took over trailing 22-21 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Texans 22. Packers won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 1:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 48.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Doubs (43-N.Hewitt).
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft ran ob at GB 38 for 8 yards.
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks to HOU 49 for 13 yards (24-D.Stingley, 43-N.Hewitt).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to HOU 37 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 13-D.Wicks.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to HOU 26 for 6 yards (37-D.Ross).
- (:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.71 pts |
| Play action | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Quick out | +0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.37 pts |
| Deep post | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.