Giants vs Saints — Week 14, 2024
The Giants took over trailing 14-11 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Giants 11, Saints 14. Saints won 14-11 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 14, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 29.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles left end to NYG 17 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep middle to 1-M.Nabers.
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at NYG 37 for 20 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Bellinger (98-P.Turner).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to NYG 38 for 6 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson [90-B.Bresee].
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis at NO 47. 56-D.Davis to NO 47 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.05 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| Deep post | -0.68 pts |
| Play action | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Outside run | -1.93 pts |
| Inside run | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.