Seahawks vs Giants — Week 5, 2024
The Seahawks took over trailing 23-20 with 1:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Giants 29. Giants won 29-20 — the drive missed field goal.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 1:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 32.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right guard ran ob at NYG 34 for 32 yards (27-J.Pinnock).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 87-N.Fant to NYG 28 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke; 22-A.Phillips).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett.
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
- (1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.24 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.71 pts |
| Play action | +1.13 pts |
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.