Cardinals vs Chargers — Week 7, 2024
The Cardinals took over trailing 15-14 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, Chargers 15. Cardinals won 17-15 — the drive scored.
Cardinals ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.8% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 50.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner pushed ob at LAC 22 for 33 yards (3-D.James).
- (1:34) 6-J.Conner right tackle to LAC 17 for 5 yards (3-D.James). ** Injury Update: LAC-93-O.Ogbonnia has returned to the game.
- (1:29) 6-J.Conner left tackle to LAC 11 for 6 yards (25-J.Colson; 20-C.Hart).
- (1:19) 1-K.Murray kneels to LAC 12 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 1-K.Murray kneels to LAC 14 for -2 yards.
- (:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.73 pts |
| Curl route | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.56 pts |
| QB keep | +1.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.16 pts |
| Deep post | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.