Commanders vs Steelers — Week 10, 2024
The Commanders took over trailing 28-27 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Steelers 28. Steelers won 28-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Commanders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 2:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.6% for Commanders. Our model starts at 53.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle [56-A.Highsmith]. PIT-56-A.Highsmith was injured during the play.
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-N.Brown to WAS 49 for 14 yards (42-J.Pierre).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (95-K.Benton).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 85-N.Brown (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt].
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-N.Brown (42-J.Pierre).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.08 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| QB keep | +1.36 pts |
| Curl route | +1.36 pts |
| Quick out | +1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.64 pts |
| Outside run | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.02 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.61 pts |
| Deep post | -4.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.