Titans vs Jaguars — Week 14, 2024
The Titans took over trailing 10-6 with 0:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Titans 6, Jaguars 10. Jaguars won 10-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 0:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.2% for Titans. Our model starts at 22.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo (30-M.Brown).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Boyd (22-J.Jones).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep middle to 0-C.Ridley (5-A.Cisco).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Boyd [91-A.Armstead].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.25 pts |
| Deep post | +1.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.68 pts |
| QB keep | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.53 pts |
| Play action | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.