Falcons vs Chiefs — Week 3, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 22-17 with 2:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 17, Chiefs 22. Chiefs won 22-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 2:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.8% for Falcons. Our model starts at 20.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London to KC 48 for 12 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London [56-G.Karlaftis].
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney to KC 24 for -2 yards (13-N.Johnson).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-D.London to KC 13 for 11 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard to KC 13 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill).
- (:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.16 pts |
| Deep post | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +1.01 pts |
| Play action | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -1.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.