Jaguars vs Eagles — Week 9, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 28-23 with 2:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 23, Eagles 28. Eagles won 28-23 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 2:11 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.7% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 21.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 11-P.Washington (34-I.Rodgers).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 17-E.Engram.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 11-P.Washington.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-A.Trammell pushed ob at PHI 13 for 22 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 2-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 17-N.Dean at PHI -3. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.84 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.39 pts |
| QB keep | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.83 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.13 pts |
| Deep post | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.