Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 13, 2024
The Raiders took over trailing 19-17 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 17, Chiefs 19. Chiefs won 19-17 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 8, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 8-A.Abdullah to LV 20 for 7 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 25 for 5 yards (32-N.Bolton).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep middle to 89-B.Bowers to 50 for 25 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to KC 39 for 11 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
- (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah to KC 32 for 7 yards (21-J.Hicks).
- (:16) (No Huddle) 12-A.O'Connell spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 38, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 37. Penalty on LV, Illegal Shift, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.22 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.40 pts |
| Curl route | -1.41 pts |
| Deep post | -1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.53 pts |
| Quick out | -1.65 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.87 pts |
| Play action | -2.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.15 pts |
| Outside run | -2.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.35 pts |
| Inside run | -2.36 pts |
| Spike it | -2.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.