Jaguars vs Titans — Week 14, 2024
The Jaguars took over leading 10-6 with 1:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 10, Titans 6. Jaguars won 10-6 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 1:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.2% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 88.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:11) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to JAX 10 for 1 yard (98-J.Simmons). Penalty on JAX-15-T.Jones, Illegal Shift, declined.
- (1:07) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to JAX 10 for no gain (41-O.Reese; 69-S.Joseph).
- (1:03) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to JAX 14 for 4 yards (69-S.Joseph).
- (:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 40 for 6 yards (81-J.Deguara).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Outside run | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.27 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| QB keep | -1.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.97 pts |
| Play action | -2.90 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.95 pts |
| End-around | -5.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.77 pts |
| Deep post | -7.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.