Colts vs Bears — Week 3, 2024
The Colts took over leading 21-16 with 2:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Colts 21, Bears 16. Colts won 21-16 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.5% for Colts. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:01) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 34 for 4 yards (97-A.Billings, 9-J.Brisker).
- (1:57) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 47 for 13 yards (57-J.Sanborn, 31-K.Byard).
- (1:49) 5-A.Richardson kneels to IND 45 for -2 yards.
- (1:05) 5-A.Richardson kneels to IND 44 for -1 yards.
- (:28) 5-A.Richardson kneels to IND 43 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.82 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.21 pts |
| Curl route | -2.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.70 pts |
| End-around | -4.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.55 pts |
| Deep post | -8.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.