Steelers vs Bengals — Week 13, 2024
The Steelers took over leading 44-38 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 46, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 44, Bengals 38. Steelers won 44-38 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) 22-N.Harris left tackle to CIN 43 for 3 yards (22-G.Stone). ** Injury Update: CIN-27-J.Battle has returned to the game.
- (2:00) 22-N.Harris right end to CIN 40 for 3 yards (92-B.Hill; 94-S.Hubbard). Penalty on PIT-81-M.Pruitt, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields right end to CIN 33 for 7 yards (28-J.Newton).
- (1:12) 3-R.Wilson kneels to CIN 34 for -1 yards.
- (:33) 3-R.Wilson kneels to CIN 35 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| QB keep | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.15 pts |
| Deep post | -8.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.