Buccaneers vs Lions — Week 2, 2024
The Buccaneers took over leading 20-16 with 0:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Lions 16. Buccaneers won 20-16 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 0:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 87.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:53) 1-R.White right end to TB 7 for 1 yard (32-B.Branch).
- (:49) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to TB 10 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell; 91-L.Onwuzurike).
- (:45) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans (55-D.Barnes). Ball batted at the line
- (:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to TB 44 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.91 pts |
| Outside run | -0.96 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.60 pts |
| QB keep | -1.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.02 pts |
| Play action | -3.28 pts |
| Curl route | -3.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.99 pts |
| Deep post | -7.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.