Jaguars vs Colts — Week 5, 2024
The Jaguars took over leading 34-27 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 37, Colts 34. Jaguars won 37-34 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 91.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 30 for no gain (93-A.Gotsis).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas (40-J.Jones).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 0-G.Davis (33-S.Womack).
- (3:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to IND 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-J.Downs pushed ob at IND 23 for 11 yards (81-J.Deguara).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.50 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.