Giants vs Browns — Week 3, 2024
The Giants took over leading 21-15 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Browns 15. Giants won 21-15 — the drive missed field goal.
Giants ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Browns territory, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 94.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) 26-D.Singletary right guard to CLE 29 for no gain (93-S.Harris). ** Injury Update: NYG-78-A.Thomas has returned to the game.
- (3:52) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to CLE 33 for -4 yards (9-G.Delpit).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right guard to CLE 30 for 3 yards (9-G.Delpit; 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (3:04) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Field goal | -1.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Curl route | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -5.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.