Commanders vs Giants — Week 2, 2024
The Commanders took over tied at 18 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 21, Giants 18. Commanders won 21-18 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 23, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.5% for Commanders. Our model starts at 56.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 30-A.Ekeler right end to WAS 23 for no gain (22-A.Phillips; 51-A.Ojulari). ** Injury Update: NYG-22-A.Phillips has returned to the game.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown to NYG 43 for 34 yards (28-C.Flott).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus to NYG 35 for 8 yards (22-A.Phillips, 28-C.Flott).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to NYG 24 for 11 yards (97-D.Lawrence, 5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end pushed ob at NYG 10 for 14 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard to NYG 11 for -1 yards (41-M.McFadden, 93-R.Nunez-Roches).
- (:10) 5-J.Daniels kneels to NYG 12 for -1 yards.
- (:04) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.56 pts |
| QB keep | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.19 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.77 pts |
| Deep post | -2.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.