Broncos vs Jets — Week 4, 2024
The Broncos took over leading 10-9 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 10, Jets 9. Broncos won 10-9 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 17, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.0% for Broncos. Our model starts at 60.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 20-M.Burton to DEN 20 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood, 56-Qi.Williams).
- (3:23) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DEN 23 for 3 yards (95-Q.Williams).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reynolds (4-D.Reed).
- (2:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NYJ 31, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 33 for 2 yards (43-K.Smith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.16 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -3.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -6.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.