Rams vs Vikings — Week 8, 2024
The Rams took over leading 28-20 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Vikings 20. Rams won 30-20 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 19, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Rams. Our model starts at 93.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 21 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 0-I.Pace).
- (3:31) 23-K.Williams right tackle to LA 20 for -1 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel, 0-I.Pace).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to LA 47 for 27 yards (2-S.Gilmore; 24-C.Bynum).
- (3:19) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 47 for no gain (0-I.Pace).
- (2:40) 17-P.Nacua right end to LA 45 for -2 yards (7-B.Murphy, 43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at MIN 46 for 9 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (1:53) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -2.73 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.09 pts |
| Deep post | -8.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.