Ravens vs Commanders — Week 6, 2024
The Ravens took over leading 30-23 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 30, Commanders 23. Ravens won 30-23 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 94.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 32 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:44) 22-D.Henry left end to WAS 41 for 27 yards (11-J.Chinn, 20-Q.Martin).
- (2:00) 22-D.Henry right guard to WAS 37 for 4 yards (11-J.Chinn).
- (1:56) 22-D.Henry left end to WAS 32 for 5 yards (32-M.Walker; 99-C.Ferrell).
- (1:10) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at WAS 30 for 2 yards (11-J.Chinn).
- (1:05) 8-L.Jackson kneels to WAS 31 for -1 yards.
- (:23) 8-L.Jackson kneels to WAS 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -3.09 pts |
| End-around | -5.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.07 pts |
| Deep post | -8.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.