Chiefs vs Panthers — Week 12, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 27-19 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Panthers 27. Chiefs won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 93.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 29-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 29 for 4 yards (94-A.Robinson).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 23 for -6 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 16 for -7 yards (sack split by 75-D.Williams and 7-J.Clowney).
- (3:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to CAR 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 46 for 10 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 46.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.14 pts |
| End-around | -5.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.20 pts |
| Deep post | -8.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.