Cowboys vs Giants — Week 4, 2024
The Cowboys took over leading 20-15 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at the Giants 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Giants 15. Cowboys won 20-15 — the drive missed field goal.
Cowboys ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 92.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) 15-E.Elliott left guard to NYG 38 for 7 yards (98-D.Davidson).
- (3:16) 15-E.Elliott left tackle to NYG 36 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
- (3:10) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to NYG 34 for 2 yards (41-M.McFadden).
- (2:28) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to NYG 37 for -3 yards (41-M.McFadden).
- (2:00) 23-R.Dowdle up the middle to NYG 36 for 1 yard (41-M.McFadden; 0-B.Burns).
- (1:16) 23-R.Dowdle left end to NYG 32 for 4 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (:32) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.43 pts |
| Curl route | -2.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.78 pts |
| Deep post | -8.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.