Bears vs Rams — Week 4, 2024
The Bears took over leading 24-18 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Bears 24, Rams 18. Bears won 24-18 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.3% for Bears. Our model starts at 90.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 45 for 7 yards (92-N.Gallimore; 56-C.Rozeboom).
- (3:26) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 47 for 2 yards (92-N.Gallimore).
- (2:47) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right tackle to 50 for 3 yards (95-B.Brown; 37-Q.Lake).
- (2:35) 4-D.Swift left end to LA 47 for 3 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 8-J.Verse).
- (2:29) 4-D.Swift left tackle to LA 45 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake; 55-B.Fiske).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left end to LA 43 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske).
- (1:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to LA 8, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -2.38 pts |
| Curl route | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -4.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.69 pts |
| Deep post | -8.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.