Jets vs Bills — Week 6, 2024
The Jets took over trailing 23-20 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 20, Bills 23. Bills won 23-20 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 35.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 23 for -7 yards (43-T.Bernard). FUMBLES (43-T.Bernard) [43-T.Bernard], touched at NYJ 21, RECOVERED by BUF-50-G.Rousseau at NYJ 22. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle [43-T.Bernard].
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 36 for 6 yards (9-T.Rapp; 7-Ta.Johnson).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left end to NYJ 48 for 2 yards (31-R.Douglas).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 20-B.Hall to BUF 39 for 13 yards (57-A.Epenesa). PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 89-J.Ruckert (9-T.Rapp).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at BUF 18. 7-Ta.Johnson to BUF 18 for no gain (18-M.Williams). NYJ-18-M.Williams was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.62 pts |
| Curl route | +1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Quick out | +0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| Play action | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.60 pts |
| Deep post | -1.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.