Texans vs Titans — Week 12, 2024
The Texans took over trailing 30-27 with 1:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 27, Titans 32. Titans won 32-27 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 8, 1:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.2% for Texans. Our model starts at 23.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins (56-K.Murray).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 1 for -7 yards (98-J.Simmons).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (58-H.Landry).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.72 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Curl route | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.41 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -1.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
| Inside run | -2.33 pts |
| Outside run | -2.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.