Browns vs Giants — Week 3, 2024
The Browns took over trailing 21-15 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Browns 15, Giants 21. Giants won 21-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 38, 3:00 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.0% for Browns. Our model starts at 15.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to CLE 44 for 6 yards (3-D.Banks).
- (2:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 2-A.Cooper.
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 2-A.Cooper. CLE-2-A.Cooper was injured during the play.
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Play action | -0.17 pts |
| Deep post | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.