Eagles vs Jaguars — Week 9, 2024
The Eagles took over leading 28-23 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 28, Jaguars 23. Eagles won 28-23 — the drive missed field goal.
Eagles ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 32, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.8% for Eagles. Our model starts at 86.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) 26-S.Barkley left guard to PHI 40 for 8 yards (6-D.Savage).
- (3:14) 26-S.Barkley right guard to JAX 45 for 15 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 6-D.Savage).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to JAX 43 for 2 yards (52-D.Hamilton; 51-V.Miller).
- (2:25) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to JAX 39 for 9 yards (6-D.Savage).
- (2:19) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to JAX 39 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton).
- (2:16) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| QB keep | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -2.15 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| End-around | -4.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.40 pts |
| Deep post | -7.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.