Rams vs Raiders — Week 7, 2024
The Rams took over leading 20-15 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Rams 20, Raiders 15. Rams won 20-15 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.9% for Rams. Our model starts at 89.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 44 for 14 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 45 for 1 yard (41-R.Spillane, 20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (1:56) 23-K.Williams right tackle to LA 48 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell to LV 47 for 5 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
- (1:46) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to LV 11, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.77 pts |
| QB keep | -0.81 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.24 pts |
| Curl route | -2.42 pts |
| End-around | -4.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.56 pts |
| Deep post | -7.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.