Browns vs Steelers — Week 12, 2024
The Browns took over trailing 19-18 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 24, Steelers 19. Browns won 24-19 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 62.4% for Browns. Our model starts at 60.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left guard to PIT 38 for 7 yards (97-Ca.Heyward).
- (2:46) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Akins.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (25-D.Elliott).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 88-J.Akins ran ob at PIT 25 for 8 yards [51-Ni.Herbig].
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to PIT 25 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig; 97-Ca.Heyward).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 14 for 15 yards (24-J.Porter) [99-L.Ogunjobi]. PENALTY on PIT-31-B.Bishop, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to PIT 2 for 7 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick, 90-T.Watt).
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Winston pass to 3-J.Jeudy is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.94 pts |
| Deep post | -2.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.