Bills vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2024
The Bills took over tied at 27 with 1:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 30, Dolphins 27. Bills won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 1:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 58.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 26 for -4 yards (44-C.Robinson).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Kincaid (90-D.Hand).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox.
- (:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to MIA 47 for 7 yards (24-C.Smith).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to MIA 43 for 4 yards (24-C.Smith).
- (:22) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 1-C.Samuel.
- (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid.
- (:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.41 pts |
| Curl route | +1.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Outside run | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.75 pts |
| Deep post | -2.27 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.