Steelers vs Browns — Week 12, 2024
The Steelers took over leading 19-18 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 19, Browns 24. Browns won 24-19 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 24, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 61.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 22-N.Harris up the middle to PIT 27 for 3 yards (9-G.Delpit).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 30 for 3 yards (43-M.Diabate).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens.
- (3:29) 8-C.Waitman punts 15 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Curl route | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.49 pts |
| End-around | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.